6月9日，俄军击溃乌军精锐旅团进攻并缴获大量西方装备

井冈山卫士

根据五天的结果，可以说扎波罗热地区的激烈战斗仍在继续。在战斗中，至少有 8,000 名 AFU 军人、12 辆豹 2 和 T-72 坦克、15 辆布拉德利步兵战车和至少 150 辆装甲车损失。装甲车损失以上的数字可能至少为 300-350 辆。

试图穿越雷区的乌克兰突击队和俄罗斯步兵部队之间经常发生战斗，俄罗斯步兵和反坦克部队走在最前线，坦克从后面支援他们。

在无人机的控制下，对俄罗斯军队的即时空中和火炮支援不断增加。

https://twitter.com/KELMAND1/status/1667407541461217280

井冈山卫士

ANALYSIS UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE ZAPORIZHIA AFTERNOON JUNE 9
Hard fighting continues along the Zaporizhia front, but with no ukrainian breakthrough. Sometimes UkrAF makes small gains and then RuAF retakes the lost territories. But all fighting are still being conducted in the gray area in front of the russian main defence lines (map 3)

I will not go into details about attacks and counterattacks, but the main areas of fighting has been centred around Lobkove to the west, and Robotino to the south, of Orikhiv. Lobkove was captured a short while by ukrainian forces, but later they retreated due to intense russian bombardments.

In Robotino russian forces retreated to the second line of forward positions closer to the settlement, then russian forces retook the lost positions and presently ukrainian forces has taken them a second time and now russian forces try to retake the first line a second time. But still the ukrainians has not reached the settlement of Robotino and they are fighting an uphill battle in open terrain (see topographical map 2) through russian minefields and might have to withdraw a second time to their original positions.

The ukrainian forces doesn't seem to sweep mines in advance of the attack. They do it with a couple of mine clearing vehicles when they attack and behind them the ukrainian armour advance in a column that is an easy target for russian AT assets. In a way it resembles the russian armour columns in the beginning of the war. Columns that took catastrophic losses to ukrainan AT weapons, a history now repeated by the ukrainans.

In advance of an offensive, the attacking side must secure air and artillery superiority, so they can shield their mine clearing operations and troop concentrations. And at the same time destroy the defenders command structures and logistical hubs. Finally when they attack their air and artillery superiority can be utilised to severely hurt and slow down enemy reserves to secure breakthroughs. This becomes even more important if the enemy has large reserves and a defence in depth.

On the Zaporizhia front the situation is the opposite, so ukrainian forces hasn't many choices how to act. One method is to achieve strategic surprise as in the Kharkiv offensive last autumn. That option doesn't exist on the Zaporizhia front. In general I would say that an attack towards an enemy who has all the benefits RuAF has on the Zaporizhia front is suicidal.

The only way ukrainian (and western) commanders even could have contemplated that such an offensive could succeed was if 1, western weapons was much superior to russian weapons, 2, western trained soldiers much superior to russian soldiers and 3, russian morale was dismal. If all these factors where true, UkrAF might have had a chance to succeed, but nothing seems to corroborate those assumptions.

Many on the ukrainian and western side had anticipated hard initial resistance from RuAF, but after 2-3 days fighting and advances of around 6-8 km, they expected an increasing collapse of russian morale and the real breakthroughs would come. Nothing of this seems to be other than wishful thinking, since fighting still are in the grey zone and russian resistance are unbroken. At the same time ukrainian forces take heavy casulties both in soldiers and vehicles.

The offensive isn't over yet and the main ukrainian attack fist remains with probably over 600 tanks and as many IFVs around Orikhiv. But the future for the ukrainian offensive looks bleak if their vanguard is destroyed before they reach the russian main defencelines. The probability is large that Ukraine has to use up their main force to get through a couple of the russian defencelines and then they will run out of forces to exploit any successes and be forced to withdraw.

To summarise, the most likely outcome of the ukrainian offensive is minor territorial gains at a horrendous cost. As I've said before it seems to be Kursk 2.0

https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1667185289113006081

井冈山卫士

井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-6-10 21:41
ANALYSIS UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE ZAPORIZHIA AFTERNOON JUNE 9
Hard fighting continues along the Za ...

上楼的瑞典军事分析家认为，俄军的空中优势，炮火优势和雷场是乌军损失巨大而且没有进展的主要原因。

在这种情况下，乌军想要获胜需要同时具备三个条件1）北约装备明显强于俄罗斯装备2）乌军训练水平明显强于俄军3）俄军士气濒临崩溃。但是这三个条件一个都不存在。

北约的战术条令需要在进攻的48到72小时内推进6到8公里，即达成战术突破。但是乌军显然没有做到。

远航一号

井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-6-10 21:44
上楼的瑞典军事分析家认为，俄军的空中优势，炮火优势和雷场是乌军损失巨大而且没有进展的主要原因。

在 ...

144个小时都过去了

井冈山卫士

来几张俄罗斯艺术家的画作

井冈山卫士

远航一号 发表于 2023-6-10 21:45
144个小时都过去了

甚至没有推进超过一公里，没有摸到反坦克混凝土壁垒，还在雷区里晃悠。

井冈山卫士

王导 发表于 2023-6-10 13:22
真：父子齐聚东欧大平原

这张配图经典

远航一号

https://pincong.rocks/article/id ... ee_count__sort-DESC

品葱右派不情不愿的部分“反思”+ 自我安慰 + 继续逃避现实

还是公平

远航一号 发表于 2023-6-10 22:00
https://pincong.rocks/article/id ... ee_count__sort-DESC

品葱右派不情不愿的部分“反思”+ 自我安慰 + ...

下面有个回覆：

只要烏克蘭肯死人，美國當然會不斷武器支援。

(◔◡◔)

井冈山卫士

美国海军陆战队前情报官员斯科特·里特在YouTube频道《美国使命之旅》（U.S. Tour of Duty）的节目中说，俄罗斯军队在乌军的反攻中会摧毁他们的士兵，北约的任何支持都帮不了基辅。

他说："他们在使用北约的装备、火炮、训练和情报，除了士兵之外一切都是'北约的'，而他们正在被摧毁。而这将发生在乌军反攻的每一个方面。这是大规模的被歼。”

据这位前情报官员称，乌军将无法穿透俄军的防御，并将遭受巨大的损失，而对此受责的将是反攻的组织者，没有一个军事专家会对失败产生怀疑。

里特总结说：“他们派去参加这次反攻的每一个乌克兰人都将被打死、打伤或被俘。"

前一天，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京谈到了乌克兰军队反攻的开始，他确定，基辅设定的目标没有在任何一个战场上得以达成。