“Putin is not going to be defeated. The countries putting on sanctions constitute 15% of the world population. The other 85% say this is hurting everybody. We're just escalating and we're not thinking because none of this has a decent outcome.” — Jeffrey Sachs
In terms of length of war I think when people talk in years they don’t quite understand how cold winter is in Ukraine and Eastern Europe.
Leaves fall, Forrest’s are not so easy to hide in, everything shows up against a white background and it’s incredibly cold.
Who is going to sand and salt the roads, take care of the train tracks, make sure pipes don’t burst.
Yes Russia has not destroyed lots of key infrastructure but alot of the damage will only show in winter.
NATO recognises they have until winter to fight. Once winter hits it will be insanely hard to fight Russia. The pain they can inflict economically -gas – on Europe and Ukrainie is not just a side consideration, it is a fatal blow.
This war from NATO Europe side has to wind down before winter increases demand for gas and therefore prices.
Russia can sit tight and move cautiously over summer, making sure that it builds up areas it takes to handle winter.
When winter comes Russia will have a decision. Put aside other weapons. It will have the power to kill people, destroy industries, inflict massive suffering just by turning a gas switch.
When they do that. If they do. All hell wil break loose and the war will really come home.作者: 莫若润之 时间: 2022-5-20 09:06:45