美国统治集团激烈辩论乌克兰战争前景及美国对策

远航一号

There is a lot of anti-Russian sentiment in China, he added, and the Chinese people won’t like the idea of accepting hardship to help Russia. Ukraine and China, he added, “have a robust partnership going back decades.”

该官员称，在中国内部，有很多反俄情绪。中国“人民”不会为了帮助俄罗斯而过苦日子。

编注：在中国资产阶级和自由派小资产阶级中，确实有相当的反俄情绪。

井冈山卫士

远航一号 发表于 2023-3-21 00:41
普京可以征召170万预备役。在黑海击沉几艘俄罗斯军舰不解决问题。在美国内战中，南军打得很好，但北方在人 ...

上一期《美国保守派》的一篇文章也用美国内战来形容本次战争。但显然把乌军比作邦联军是高抬了前者。

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A former senior foreign policy official proposed that the United States threaten China with sanctions to limit its support for Russia. Although sanctions on Russia haven’t worked, China is a different case, he argued, because it is more integrated than Russia into the world economic system.

一名原高级外交官员主张对中国威胁使用制裁，来制止其对俄罗斯的帮助。该官员承认，对俄罗斯的制裁没有起作用，但中国的情形不同，因为中国与世界经济体系的结合程度远远超过俄罗斯。

编注：这名外交官员的主张疯狂而愚蠢，但其对中、俄区别的观察有些意思

远航一号

A foreign policy analyst who has advised the US Defense Department noted that Putin can call up 1.7 million reserves if he has to. “It may be fun to sink Russian ships in the Black Sea or to destroy targets inside Russia,” he said, “But it doesn’t relieve pressure on Ukraine. It’s like the American Civil War. The South fought more effectively, but the North had an overwhelming advantage in manpower and munitions. By 1865, the South didn’t have enough soldiers to defend Richmond.” He proposed an international army of volunteers to fight for Ukraine.

普京可以征召170万预备役。在黑海击沉几艘俄罗斯军舰不解决问题。在美国内战中，南军打得很好，但北方在人力物力方面有压倒优势。到了1865年，南方再也没有足够的人来保卫里士满了。
该“专家”建议组织国际志愿军来帮助乌克兰。

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America has political constraints on aid to Ukraine, a former senior Pentagon official objected: If we cannot provide large amounts of aid two years from now, we are better off cutting our losses now.

原五角大楼一名官员指出，如果我们无法在两年内提供大量援助，不如现在就及时止损。

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Another former senior US commander argued that the United States should send 1,000 Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine, although he didn’t explain from where they might be obtained. Ukraine should receive weapons that can destroy targets deep inside Russia, he added, and the US “should get rid of the artificial boundary that says Ukraine can’t strike into Russia. Russia is part of the battlefield.”

一名高级军官主张，美国应送给乌克兰1000辆M1式坦克（但无法说明这些坦克从哪里来）。该军官称，美国应该抛开一切限制，给乌克兰可以打击到深入俄罗斯后方的武器。

马儿在驰骋

远航一号 发表于 2023-3-21 00:33
回到《亚洲时报》文章：

乌克兰版春季觉醒行动？

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回到《亚洲时报》文章：

The prospects for a breakthrough to end the stalemate along the Line of Contact are poor, the rapporteur continued. The expected Ukrainian Spring offensive is one of the most anticipated maneuvers in military history, and Russia has had plenty of time to prepare defensive positions. Ukraine would need 650 modern main battle tanks and 1,000 armed personnel carriers to make a difference, in the view of one expert.

乌克兰取得突破的前景不妙。预期中的乌克兰春季攻势也许是军事史上最被人们广为期待的行动之一。俄军有充足时间做好准备。要取得战果，乌克兰需要650辆现代化的主战坦克和1000辆装甲车。

编注：让人想起1943年被一再拖延的德国法西斯“堡垒”战役计划

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Kiev regime forces, with 734,000 soldiers (+100,000 reservists) and an unspecified number of NATO officers, soldiers and mercenaries involved:

- 302 fixed-wing aircraft;

- 212 helicopters;

- 2.750 drones;

- 6,320 tanks and armored vehicles;

- 7.360 artillery systems;

- 497 air defense systems;

- 157,000 killed in action;

- 234,000 recoverable injuries;

- 17,230 captured;

- 234 NATO officers killed in action (US and UK);

- 2,458 NATO soldiers killed in action (Germany, Poland, Lithuania, etc.)

- 5,360 mercenaries killed in action.

截至今年一月中旬，基辅当局投入兵力73万，另有10万预备役及北约军官、特种兵和雇佣兵。乌军阵亡及重伤16万，轻伤23万，被俘17000。此外，俄军击毙北约军官200多人、北约士兵约2500人、北约雇佣兵约5400人。乌军损失作战飞机300架、直升机200余架、坦克和装甲车6300辆、火炮7400门、防空系统约500套。   

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Russia, with 418,000 soldiers involved:

- 23 fixed-wing aircraft;

- 56 helicopters;

- 200 drones;

- 889 tanks and armored vehicles;

- 427 artillery systems;

- 12 air defense systems

- 18,480 killed and severely wounded in action;

- 44,500 with recoverable injuries;

- 323 captured.

截至今年一月中旬，俄军投入兵力约42万，阵亡及重伤18000，轻伤45000，被俘300，另损失作战飞机20余架、直升机50余架、坦克和装甲车约900辆、火炮400多门。