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标题: 乌克兰军事形势（3月29日） [打印本页]

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 02:31:28 标题: 乌克兰军事形势（3月29日）

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/03/ukraine-sit-rep-part-ii-of-russias-military-operation-unfolds.html

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 02:31:58

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 02:48:43

本帖最后由远航一号于 2022-3-30 02:55 编辑

以下分析来自：

https://www.moonofalabama.org/20 ... ration-unfolds.html

加上我的少量解释和发挥

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 02:55:08

The Russian military operation in Ukraine began with a rather small force of some 150.000 men against a much larger (including reservist and territorial forces) Ukrainian force of some 400.000. The Russian force used maneuver warfare to fix the larger Ukrainian forces into place. It attacked on a large front and threatened major population concentrations.

俄军在战争之初投入兵力约15万，乌军正规军+法西斯民兵+预备役约40万。在数量劣势的条件下，俄军在宽大战线上发动攻势，同时威胁多个人口中心，以运动战将乌军大部牵制在几个不同的方向，以便于各个击破。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 02:59:24

The Russian operations started with the destruction of the Ukrainian command and control network. Over four weeks its navy, its airforce, its radars and air defenses and a huge number of its armored vehicles were destroyed. Throughout the last week fuel depots all over the Ukraine were attacked and destroyed over night. Ukraine's large ammunition depots are gone. Military production and repair facilities have likewise been destroyed. The Ukraine is no longer able to move large numbers of troops between the various fronts. Its army has lost its mobility.

在过去四个星期，俄军乌军指挥控制系统，基本消灭了乌克兰空军和海军，摧毁了其雷达和防空系统，并消灭了大量乌军装甲部队。

在过去一个星期，俄军摧毁了乌军大量燃料和弹药储存及兵工生产和修理设施。乌军已经无法在不同战线之间做大规模调动。乌军失去了机动性。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 03:01:41

While this was ongoing threats to Kiev, Odessa and other large Ukrainian cities held significant numbers of Ukrainian troops in place and prevented reinforcements to move to the east. There units from the Donetzk and Luhansk republics attacked the 60,000 strong main force of the Ukrainian army to keep it in place.

大量乌军被牵制在基辅、敖德萨等地。同时，由于顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克人民武装的进攻，顿巴斯地区的乌军主力6万人无法脱离东部战场。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 03:02:40

This allowed Russian forces from Crimea and from the Russian border in the north to move into positions that will now enable them to envelope the east.

这就使得从克里米亚、俄乌边境出发的俄军有可能进入到可以包围东部乌军主力的位置。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 03:04:18

The move east and west of Kiev was, as I have said for a while, a feint to fix mobile Ukrainian units around their capital city. The feint is no longer need as the Ukrainian army has now lost its mobility. The Russian troops around Kiev and Chernigov will be mostly withdrawn probably up to Chernobyl where a part of them may take defensive positions while most of the units deployed around Kiev will be moved back to Belarus and Russia for new operations in eastern Ukraine.

俄军在基辅西侧和东侧的行动服务于战役欺骗的目的。目前，战役欺骗的任务已经完成。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 03:04:49

Fighting around Kharkiv is ongoing. Ukrainian counterattacks on that front have failed and the next phase of the war will see increased activities there.

乌军在哈尔科夫方向的所谓反攻已经失败。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 03:05:47

The move on the west side of the Dnjepr river towards the important industrial area of Kryvyi Rih and on to Dnipro has been relatively slow. The move on the eastern side of the Dnjepr towards Dnipro has been at the same speed. Note that the western and eastern parts of those fronts are at the same level. They are well coordinated. The next phase will probably see more movement on the eastern side of the river.

俄军在第聂伯河东西两侧继续齐头并进，虽然进展较为缓慢。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 03:06:38

There are still a few pockets of Azov fighters in Mariupol with the main units encircled in the vast Azovstal steelworks. They have little food and ammunition and the Chechen unites of the Russian army and national guard are working to dig them out. The Russian forces that encircled and stormed Mariupol are now freed and will be moved to attack further north.

俄军车臣部队继续在亚速钢铁厂清剿残匪。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 03:07:09

Ukrainian forces at Mykolaiv have attempted counterattacks in the direction of Kherson. These have failed.

乌军在尼古拉耶夫方向的所谓反攻被挫败。

作者: 路石 时间: 2022-3-30 03:07:50

主编辛苦了。感谢

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 03:08:19

The Russian command has decided to now concentrate on enveloping and destroying Ukraine's main forces at the Donetsk front. These are the most heavy equipped and most experienced units of the Ukrainian army. Since last fall some 60,000 men had been assembled there for a full fledged war on Donetzk, an attack that the Russian operation successfully preempted.

俄军统帅部下一步将集中兵力包围和歼灭在顿巴斯地区的乌军主力6万人。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 03:09:03

It will probably take a few days for the Russian forces to regroup and resupply for that next phase of the war. I expect it to start around the end of this week.

俄军重新集结以及后勤物资准备到位仍需要几天时间。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 03:11:06

The U.S. and Polish military are helping to smuggle small arms stuff through the western Ukrainian boarder. These are anti-tank missiles, old short range anti-air missiles as well as machine guns, mortars and ammunition. This is equipment for a guerilla war against an occupation force. But except for the east and maybe some parts in the south the Russian forces do not plan to occupy anything.

美国和波兰军事当局试图将反坦克导弹、防空导弹、机枪、迫击炮和弹药等通过乌克兰西部边境走私进乌克兰。这些武器可以用于打击占领军的游击战。但目前俄军似乎不准备占领乌克兰东部和南部以外的地区。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 03:16:20

Those regions are tundra, very flat with little woods, where one can see an approaching enemy from miles away. It will be extremely difficult for a guerilla force to survive there. That is likely the reason why the Russian forces have done little to interrupt the arms smuggling into western Ukraine.

在乌克兰东部和西部之间，分布着大量苔原（疑为沼泽地之误），地势平坦，少见森林，在数英里外就可以观察到敌人，不利于乌克兰法西斯分子组织所谓游击战。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 03:16:54

The general task for the whole military operation as set out by the Russian command was to de-militarize and to de-nazificate the Ukraine.

俄军的总任务是实现乌克兰的去军事化和去纳粹化

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 03:17:55

The material de-militarization of the Ukraine is mostly done. During the next few weeks the Russian air and long range artillery forces will finish that task. The Ukraine would have to completely rearm, starting by about zero, should it want to regain significant military capabilities. It is hard to see how it will ever be able to finance that.

去军事化实际上已经基本完成。在未来数周，俄军的空袭和远程火炮将完全完成这一任务。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 03:18:53

The de-militarization of the main forces of the Ukrainian army will happen in the Donbas cauldron. The units there will have to give up or they will destroyed by the materially vastly superior Russian forces.

在顿巴斯包围圈内的乌军主力将或者投降或者被歼

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 03:20:47

The de-nazification of the Ukraine has proven to be more difficult. The main fascist units of the Azov regiment were caught up in Mariupol where several thousand of them have been or will be eliminated. More fascist units at the Donetzk front will also soon be taken out. But during the eight years since the anti-democratic coup in Kiev the fascist ideology has deeply infiltrated all Ukrainian government structures. It will be hard for the Ukrainians to remove it even as its failures become obvious.

乌克兰的去纳粹化则更加困难。一方面，马里乌波尔的亚速团即将被全歼，顿巴斯地区的法西斯分子也将被消灭。另一方面，自2014年政变以来，乌克兰政府已经深度纳粹化。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 03:23:31

The Russian forces will probably take another four weeks to destroy the Ukrainian units at the Donetzk front. The Russian command will then have to decide which parts of the Ukraine it will want to keep under control. Next to Donetzk and Luhansk the region north of Crimea is a likely candidate. Odessa and Dnipro may also be still on the menu. The regions can be kept as statelets under local control or form a confederation that may well institutionalize a new country.

未来四周，俄军将首先消灭顿巴斯地区乌军主力。然后，俄军将视情况决定是否向敖德萨和第聂伯罗方向发展。所有俄控地区将或者实行地方自治，或者在宣布独立后组成一个新的邦联。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 03:24:57

Anything beyond that depends on the willingness of the U.S. proxy government in Kiev to submit to Russia's demands. Russia can leave it at that or that or it can continue to mow the grass until none is left.

此后形势的发展将取决于美国在基辅的傀儡政府是否接受俄罗斯的要求

作者: 仗义执言 时间: 2022-3-30 08:44:52

本帖最后由仗义执言于 2022-3-30 08:45 编辑

俄罗斯当局从胜利走向胜利，没有挫败，一切按照普京亲自指挥亲自部署正确按时推进，伟大的阿q的俄罗斯精神战无不胜，被人按着吃屎然后说是自己主动吃屎或者儿子孝顺喂老子吃屎

作者: 井冈山卫士 时间: 2022-3-30 08:50:22

仗义执言发表于 2022-3-30 08:44
俄罗斯当局从胜利走向胜利，没有挫败，一切按照普京亲自指挥亲自部署正确按时推进，伟大的阿q的俄罗斯精神 ...

知道你有情绪，但是红中网并不是的情绪垃圾桶，注意控制自己，你也是成年人了。

作者: 仗义执言 时间: 2022-3-30 08:53:14

井冈山卫士发表于 2022-3-30 08:50
知道你有情绪，但是红中网并不是的情绪垃圾桶，注意控制自己，你也是成年人了。 ...

都不能说是阿q精神了鲁迅也是有情绪我看你们丧失了理智，被情绪控制否则不能说别人批评你们阿q精神这样回答

作者: 真红ReinerRubin 时间: 2022-3-30 09:22:54

井冈山卫士发表于 2022-3-30 08:50
知道你有情绪，但是红中网并不是的情绪垃圾桶，注意控制自己，你也是成年人了。 ...

这么看来，路石同志的忠告不仅仅是对马列毛积极青年的，也可以对这位马列托主义者（仗义执言）：
“确立信仰的确是个漫长的过程，不能为了自己一时的精神解脱，像宗教一样功利主义地来对待，实际上就是要处理好马列理论与社会实践的辩证统一关系。简单地说就是逻辑与立场一样都不能少。不掌握马列的科学逻辑，单凭朴素的阶级感情和立场，在我们小资产阶级身上就可能会蜕变为“温情脉脉的伤感”，时不时释放点廉价的同情心，或者满嘴的人民大众，满肚子的自我表现。同样，没有阶级立场只懂点马列逻辑，仅靠救世主情结的神圣发作，通过教化别人而表达自己的存在，一遇到点挫折，便又龟缩进自己的小世界里去了。我建议，无论是解决马列理论逻辑问题，还是解决阶级感情立场问题，都不要用力过猛（过左过右），否则就会左右摇摆，把自己也整得痛苦不堪。当然，也不能时刻算计自己所走的“高尚”道路能不能成功，那是小农意识或小市民意识的算计。其实我的人生经验是这样的：有信仰就已经是幸福的，实现了信仰则是幸运的了！”

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 09:33:10

https://mobile.twitter.com/gbazov/status/1508875144952958986

另一组关于战场形势和俄军战略的详细分析

作者: 仗义执言 时间: 2022-3-30 10:28:59

本帖最后由仗义执言于 2022-3-30 10:30 编辑

井冈山卫士是啊，想想马列托过去还会辩论几下，现在没几个回合就开始骂人，然后就把话题扯到他关心的性工作者上了。发表于半小时前
============
我骂人了吗？你看看几个马甲天天骂人，关于所谓的性工作这首先扯到这个问题的也不是我啊，你到底有没有看相关帖子啊

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2022-3-30 11:33:56

仗义执言发表于 2022-3-30 10:28
井冈山卫士是啊，想想马列托过去还会辩论几下，现在没几个回合就开始骂人，然后就把话题扯到他关心的性工 ...

别人哪里那么多马甲就你自己马甲多

作者: 社会主义同志 时间: 2022-3-30 12:47:39

本帖最后由社会主义同志于 2022-3-30 12:49 编辑

仗义执言发表于 2022-3-30 08:44
俄罗斯当局从胜利走向胜利，没有挫败，一切按照普京亲自指挥亲自部署正确按时推进，伟大的阿q的俄罗斯精神 ...

按照你这个吃屎的逻辑，乌克兰法西斯当局应该是吃屎吃的最多了。反动的北约和乌克兰当局现在对俄武装力量占领的领土束手无策，是不是气急败坏了？

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